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The correlation between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury note is strong and significant!

Daniele S. Gordon | August 26, 2024

Benchmark for Rates: The 10-year Treasury note is often used as a benchmark for long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates. This is because both the Treasury note and long-term mortgages are long-term investments, so their rates tend to move in tandem.

Investor Behavior: Mortgage rates are influenced by the demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). When investors are confident in the economy, they may prefer higher-risk investments over safer ones like Treasury notes, leading to higher mortgage rates. Conversely, when economic uncertainty is high, investors flock to the safety of Treasury notes, pushing their yields down, which can lead to lower mortgage rates.

Yield Spread: Lenders set mortgage rates based on the yield of the 10-year Treasury note plus a margin to cover the risks and costs associated with lending. As the yield on the 10-year Treasury note changes, mortgage rates typically adjust accordingly.

Economic Indicators: Both mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury note are influenced by the same economic factors, such as inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and overall economic growth. When inflation rises, both the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates tend to increase, and when the economy slows, they typically decrease.

In summary, while mortgage rates are not directly tied to the 10-year Treasury note, they are highly correlated because they both respond to similar economic forces, and the 10-year note serves as a key indicator for setting long-term interest rates, including those for mortgages.

 

Daniele Gordon, P.A. 

Associate Broker

Coldwell Banker Realty 

 954.589.7787

 [email protected]

 www.DanieleGordon.com

 

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